Circumstances, Domestic Audiences, and Reputational Incentives in International Crisis Bargaining

My new article in the Journal of Conflict Resolution, joint with my colleague Alexandre Debs, has just been published via OnlineFirst. We argue that when governments cannot hide behind unknown circumstances, voters can better discern the government’s type from its actions, strengthening the incentives to appear resolved. The model bridges the gap between audience costs and its critiques, showing how domestic audiences punish leaders for inappropriate policies rather than empty threats. At the same time, it highlights how the prospects for peace are worse if uncertainty about the circumstances is removed, suggesting that greater transparency does not always promote peaceful outcomes. Four crises from the ICB data set illustrate that greater transparency is a double-edged sword, improving the government’s ability to obtain concessions while increasing incentives to act tough.